Here is the backbone of my rules for picking teams in the NCAA Tournament.
1. Always choose the #1 Seeds in the first 2 rounds, almost always in the third round.
1a. The following rules should be disregarded in the final four. Then you are on your own.
2. Never pick a team whose name is "X State" unless it is Michigan State (Kansas St. got me this year, but it almost always holds true).
3. Never pick the underdog that everyone else is picking--George Mason proved this point.
4. Pick the Big Ten teams to beat any other team not in the ACC--even then think about picking the Big Ten team. See point 14 for a clarification.
5. Pick West Virginia to win unless they are seeded worse than 11.
6. Pick Syracuse to win at least two games any time they make the tournament.
7. Don't pick teams that got in because they have done well in the past, e.g. Arizona (I almost pick AZ because of Kevin O'Neill--the former Detroit Piston's assistant, but luckily I realized that would have almost violated rule 15).
8. Pick any team with the word "Texas" in it until you would be forced to violate one of the other rules.
9. Never pick 16 seeds over 1 seeds or 15's over 2's, nice try though Belmont.
10. If all else fails pick teams that you want to root for, it will at least make the games more interesting.
11. If you are going to pick a big upset, pick a team that is "hot" coming into the tournament. If George had beaten Xavier like it looked like they would, that would have shown this to be true.
12. Never pick Duke to go far if they are a 2-6 seed. For that matter, ACC teams that get seeds between 2-6 don't usually do that well.
13. Michigan State will either be eliminated in the first round or make it to the final four, in most years.
14. Never pick low seeded Big Ten teams, the probably suck and only got in because of the "strength of the conference."
15. Don't pick a team that lost its coach midseason. This could be called the Indiana 08 rule.
1. Always choose the #1 Seeds in the first 2 rounds, almost always in the third round.
1a. The following rules should be disregarded in the final four. Then you are on your own.
2. Never pick a team whose name is "X State" unless it is Michigan State (Kansas St. got me this year, but it almost always holds true).
3. Never pick the underdog that everyone else is picking--George Mason proved this point.
4. Pick the Big Ten teams to beat any other team not in the ACC--even then think about picking the Big Ten team. See point 14 for a clarification.
5. Pick West Virginia to win unless they are seeded worse than 11.
6. Pick Syracuse to win at least two games any time they make the tournament.
7. Don't pick teams that got in because they have done well in the past, e.g. Arizona (I almost pick AZ because of Kevin O'Neill--the former Detroit Piston's assistant, but luckily I realized that would have almost violated rule 15).
8. Pick any team with the word "Texas" in it until you would be forced to violate one of the other rules.
9. Never pick 16 seeds over 1 seeds or 15's over 2's, nice try though Belmont.
10. If all else fails pick teams that you want to root for, it will at least make the games more interesting.
11. If you are going to pick a big upset, pick a team that is "hot" coming into the tournament. If George had beaten Xavier like it looked like they would, that would have shown this to be true.
12. Never pick Duke to go far if they are a 2-6 seed. For that matter, ACC teams that get seeds between 2-6 don't usually do that well.
13. Michigan State will either be eliminated in the first round or make it to the final four, in most years.
14. Never pick low seeded Big Ten teams, the probably suck and only got in because of the "strength of the conference."
15. Don't pick a team that lost its coach midseason. This could be called the Indiana 08 rule.
16. Never pick against a Tom Izzo disciple (this is one of my Cardinal rules). This applies to Tom Crean at Marquette and wherever Kelvin Sampson ends up. I never picked against Oklahoma when Sampson was there and I wouldn't have picked against Sampson at Indiana. In the case of a head to head pick Izzo over Crean and Crean over Sampson.17. When rules contradict use your judgement.
18. Bo Ryan at Wisconsin is one of the 5 best coaches in college basketball, pick against him at your own risk.
1 comment:
Great rreading
Post a Comment